The WorldRiskReport

Every year millions of people worldwide suffer from disasters in the aftermath of extreme natural events. But whether it be earthquakes, storms or floods, the risk of a natural event turning into a disaster only partly depends on the force of the natural event itself. The framework conditions of a society and the structures in place to respond quickly and to provide assistance in the event of emergency are just as significant. The more fragile the infrastructure network, the greater the extent of extreme poverty and inequality and the worse the access to the public health system, the more susceptible a society is to natural events. Extreme natural events cannot be prevented directly, but countries can reduce disaster risk by fighting poverty and hunger, strengthening education and health, and taking preparedness measures. Those who build earthquake-proof buildings, install and use early warning systems and invest in climate and environmental protection, are better prepared against extreme natural events.

The annual editions focus on a main topic and include the WorldRiskIndex. Since 2018 the report is published in cooperation with the Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) of the Ruhr-University Bochum. The WorldRiskReport should contribute to look at the links between natural events, climate change, development and preparedness at a global level and to draw future-oriented conclusions regarding relief measures, policies and reporting.

Download WorldRiskReport 2026

Focus topic: Storms

Storms are among the most consequential and most costly natural hazards. In economic terms they cause more damage than any other weather-related extreme event, and after earthquakes and extreme temperatures they claim the most lives. The WorldRiskReport 2026 therefore asks: why does the same storm turn into a disaster in one country while its consequences remain limited elsewhere? The answer rarely lies in the wind alone. Tropical cyclones are not becoming more frequent worldwide, but they are becoming more intense, and increasingly they gain sudden strength just off the coast. This shrinks the window in which people can be warned and seek shelter. It is not the wind that claims the most lives, but the water from storm surges and flooding. Whether a storm becomes a disaster, however, is determined above all by social vulnerability. In poor countries and in rapidly growing coastal cities, the same wind speeds hit more people, weaker buildings, and less protection. Three approaches take center stage:

Early warning systems only save lives if they reach everyone. Too often they are based on wind strength alone and overlook those who do not speak the language, who have difficulty walking, or who have no safe shelter. Effective warning starts with people, not only with the hazard.

Social protection systems are usually tied to poverty, not to vulnerability. As a result, those most in need of protection often go without any safety net. Where the state is absent, informal networks such as neighborly assistance carry people through the crisis, but they quickly reach their limits in major storms. Formal and informal protection are not opposites. They need to complement each other.

Remittances sent by migrants even exceed official emergency aid at a global level. After storms they flow quickly and directly, yet they are largely overlooked in disaster policy. At the same time they reach only households with relatives abroad, which can deepen existing inequalities.

The report’s message is also a call to action. Whether a storm becomes a disaster is not a matter of fate. It is the result of political decisions. Vulnerability can be reduced. Protection is only protection if it excludes no one.

Philippines – Devastation after Super Typhoon Haiyan in Tacloban | © Erik de Castro / Reuters

Worldmap Storm Risk

WorldRiskIndex

The WorldRiskIndex indicates the disaster risk from extreme natural events and negative climate change impacts for 193 countries in the world. It is calculated per country as the geometric mean of exposure and vulnerability. Exposure represents  the extent to which populations are exposed to and burdened by the impacts of earthquakes, tsunamis, coastal and riverine floodings, cyclones, droughts, and sea level rise. Vulnerability maps the societal domain and is composed of three dimensions:

  • Susceptibility describes structural characteristics and conditions of a society that increase the overall likelihood that populations will suffer damage from extreme natural events and enter a disaster situation.
  • Coping involves various capacities and actions of societies to counter negative impacts of natural hazards and climate change through direct actions and available resources in the form of formal or informal activities, and to minimize damage in the immediate aftermath of an event.
  • Adaptation, in contrast to coping capacities, refers to long-term processes and strategies to achieve anticipatory changes in societal structures and systems to counter, mitigate, or purposefully avoid future adverse impacts.

The basic model of the WorldRiskIndex with its modular structure, was developed jointly with the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS). Since 2018, the Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) of Ruhr-University Bochum has taken over the calculation and continuously refined the model conceptually and methodologically. In 2022, the WorldRiskIndex is published with a completely revised model that includes 100 indicators from globally available and publicly accessible databases. For the first time, all 193 member states of the United Nations are represented. Among other things, the WorldRiskIndex serves as a guidance for decision makers and identifies fields of action for disaster risk reduction.

Worldmap of Risk 2026

Calculation of Risk

cyclone-exposure-caribean.xlsx

Wglobal-cyclone-risk-2026.xlsx

worldriskindex-2026.xlsx

worldriskindex-meta.xlsx

worldriskindex-trend.csv

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Creative Commons Lizenz
The data of the WorldRiskIndex by Bündnis Entwicklung Hilft and Institute of International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0).

Downloads and Topic overview

  • Storms

    Storms are among the most consequential and most costly natural hazards. In economic terms they cause more damage than any other weather-related extreme event, and after earthquakes ...

  • Floods

    Floods belong to the most common and most devastating natural disasters worldwide. Between 2000 and 2009 they were responsible for 44 percent of all catastrophes, they affected more than ...

  • Multiple crises

    Crises such as extreme natural events, pandemics, wars, and conflicts are increasingly overlapping and amplifying each other. Global trends like climate change, population growth, and political polarization ...

  • Diversity

    Not all people are equally affected by the impacts of crises and disasters resulting from extreme natural events. Women, children, elderly people, people with disabilities and members of the LGBTQIA* ...

  • Digitalization

    Digital transformation is now influencing our lives in extensive ways – it’s hard to imagine our personal and professional lives without digital tools. Similarly, digital technologies have found their way ...

  • Social protection

    Social protection systems protect people against various social risks – for example, by providing financial security in case of illness, accidents, unemployment, or old-age. In addition, social protection ...

  • Forced Displacement & Migration

    Extreme natural events such as floods or storms, political persecution, armed conflicts – these are just some of the many causes that force millions of people around the world to leave their homes. ...

  • Water supply

    Until today, access to sufficient clean and safe water varies widely around the world, with the poorest often having to pay the most. Water shortages do not only affect a country’s agriculture and health care, ...

  • Child protection childrens right

    The prevailing conditions of logistics and infrastructure have a crucial impact on whether an extreme natural event leads to a disaster or not. Fragile infrastructure, such as dilapidated buildings, can have grave ...

  • Analysis & Prospects

    Risk is not static but a dynamic phenomenon, which is influenced by an array of environmental and societal factors. Until recently, humans were rarely the direct cause of extreme natural events. But as ...

  • Logistic infratructure

    The prevailing conditions of logistics and infrastructure have a crucial impact on whether an extreme natural event leads to a disaster or not. Fragile infrastructure, such as dilapidated buildings, can have ...

  • Food security

    The international community aims to end all forms of hunger and malnutrition by 2030. To achieve this goal there is still a lot of work to do. In many countries disasters, wars or political instability in the past ...

  • The city as a risk area

    Urbanization is one of the megatrends of our times – and as such it bears a vast complexity. While the pull of the cities often creates problems for rural regions in the industrialized countries, massive urban ...

  • Health & Healthcare

    Whether it be drought, cyclone, earthquake or floods, when an extreme natural event hits a village or a town, the vulnerability of the society crucially depends on the population’s health status as well as the health ...

  • Environmental degration & disasters

    Intact ecosystems like for example forest and riparian wetlands or mangroves can significantly reduce disaster risk by reducing the susceptibility towards extreme natural events. They contribute to nutrition ...

  • Governance & civil society

    Humans can only influence to a limited degree, whether and with what intensity, natural events are to occur. But states can considerable influence the extent of a disaster by their governance in disaster ...

World Maps 2026

Please feel free to contact us if you need additional graphics from the report.

WorldRiskIndex 2026
World Map of Storms

FAQ

Germany is in the mid-range of the WorldRiskIndex because the index reflects a specific, integrative disaster risk concept that does not cover all conceivable hazards. It considers only risks arising from extreme natural events and the consequences of climate change—not wars, political conflicts, or economic crises. The index is based on four dimensions: exposure to natural hazards, susceptibility, lack of coping capacities, and lack of adaptive capacities.

Germany performs well in many areas—such as disaster management, robust infrastructure, and strong institutions. However, certain factors increase vulnerability, including high population densities in exposed regions (e.g., river and coastal areas), social inequalities, demographic developments, and dependence on critical infrastructures. These aspects mean that Germany does not rank at the top, despite moderate exposure to extreme natural events. At the same time, the ranking shows that countries with high exposure but strong resilience and adaptability—through governance or effective disaster preparedness—can rank higher. Conversely, disaster risk is especially high where natural hazards meet a vulnerable society.

Germany’s position in the midfield is therefore not a sign of acute threat but the result of a structured assessment of the interplay between natural hazards and societal resilience.

Countries of the Global South rank close to some Global North countries in the WorldRiskIndex for several reasons. First, the index shows relative values on a scale from 0 (more favorable conditions) to 100 (less favorable conditions). All dimensions—exposure, vulnerability, coping, and adaptation capacities—are equally weighted. This does not provide absolute statements about development or hazard levels but a comparative picture for each year. Small differences in scores or rank changes do not necessarily mean large real-world differences.

The methodology also shows that disaster risk is not purely geographic but results from the interplay of hazard, societal vulnerability, and resilience. While Global South countries are often more exposed to hazards and face structural weaknesses in infrastructure or healthcare, they can improve resilience through early warning systems, local networks, or social cohesion. Conversely, Global North countries are not automatically safer. Despite strong infrastructure and institutions, factors like inequality, aging populations, or reliance on critical infrastructures can increase risks. Climate impacts such as heatwaves or heavy rainfall also add to exposure.

Thus, the ranking reflects that risk is dynamic and can be similarly high in both world regions. Countries from both the Global South and North may appear in comparable positions—not as “better” or “worse,” but as expressions of different combinations of hazard and societal capacity to cope.

No. The annual country ranking in the WorldRiskIndex is calculated independently using standardized methodology and objective data on natural hazards, vulnerability, coping, and adaptation capacities. This ensures consistency and comparability over time.

The annual focus topic—such as social security, food security, climate crisis, or digitalization—provides in-depth analysis of specific aspects of risk and resilience. It complements the index with qualitative insights and case studies but does not affect the ranking calculation.

The WorldRiskIndex methodology was fully revised and optimized in 2022 (see WorldRiskReport 2022, p. 39ff). For further questions, a contact person at Ruhr University Bochum can be provided. Experts at the Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict, who developed the index, are available for inquiries.

The values differ because the datasets serve different purposes.

  • The WorldRiskReport publishes the index annually based on the most current data at the time of release. These values remain unchanged, even if data sources are later updated.
  • The trend dataset, however, is updated annually and recalculated retroactively using a consistent methodology and dataset. This allows long-term trends to be compared without distortions from methodological updates.

Both datasets are correct: the report shows the current risk, while the trend dataset shows long-term development.

The methodology was revised in 2022 to address weaknesses and make the risk picture more precise, robust, and transparent.

Key changes:

  • Geometric mean instead of arithmetic mean: reduces distortion from extreme values, highlights balanced progress.
  • Expanded indicators: about 100 scientifically reviewed indicators now included (infrastructure, health, exposure, adaptation).
  • Expanded hazard dimension: tsunamis, differentiated flood types, and rare but severe hazards (probabilistically modeled with return periods up to 2,500 years).
  • Stricter quality standards: external indices with their own methodology (e.g., Gender Equality Index) are excluded to ensure independence.
  • Consistent scaling and classification: fixed thresholds and uniform rules improve comparability across time and countries.

The result: a more differentiated, comparable, and transparent index—less biased and more reliable for decision-making and research.

The thresholds of the risk categories in the WorldRiskIndex, from “very low” to “very high,” were deliberately not set in equal steps but are based on the statistical distribution of index values over a 20-year period. The goal of this approach is to classify countries’ risks relative to each other and make them realistically comparable, instead of relying on theoretical equal divisions.

Specifically, the categorization is based on a percentile analysis of country scores. The index values of all countries considered over the past two decades are analyzed, and the categories are defined to reflect the actual spread of global risks. Countries with very high risks fall into the top percentiles, those with medium scores into middle percentiles, and those with low risks into the lower percentiles.

This dynamic categorization has the advantage of reflecting the non-linear distribution of scores. In reality, many countries cluster around medium risk levels, while only a few have very high or very low risks. A linear division into equal score ranges would distort this reality and could cause relative country rankings to shift due to small fluctuations.

By using percentiles, comparability over time is ensured. Even if global absolute risk levels change (due to climatic, societal, or geopolitical developments), countries remain classified in relation to each other. This uneven categorization therefore realistically reflects the actual worldwide risk distribution and provides a methodologically sound, long-term classification.

The highest value in the WorldRiskIndex—around 46—may seem low at first glance, especially if mistakenly interpreted as a percentage. However, it is not a percentage probability of a disaster occurring but a normalized index score on a scale from 0 to 100. This scale is theoretically open up to 100 but represents the maximum possible risk levels in global comparison.

The WorldRiskIndex aggregates 100 indicators covering exposure to natural hazards, vulnerability, coping capacities, and adaptive capacities. Each indicator is normalized on a 0–100 scale (0 = best, 100 = worst conditions). The indicators are then combined using the geometric mean. A score of 100 would theoretically only occur if a country scored the worst possible value across all indicators.

In reality, no country faces such total risk. Even those with high exposure and weak infrastructure have some protective mechanisms, such as early warning systems, local resilience, or adaptive capacity.

This is why the highest observed value is much lower than 100, typically around 46. The index is designed as a relative measure: it shows how vulnerable a country is compared to others, not the absolute probability of a disaster. A score of 46+ thus represents one of the world’s highest structural risks, even though the number itself is below the maximum of the scale.

The WorldRiskIndex is a highly useful tool for comparing structural exposure and vulnerability to extreme natural events across countries. However, its scope has clear limits:

  • It does not capture short-term or acute hazards and does not predict upcoming disasters. It is based on structural and historical data, showing general vulnerability but not specific timing or occurrence.
  • It focuses on natural hazards and societal impacts, excluding technological or industrial risks, armed conflict, political crises, or economic collapses, even though these may also have catastrophic consequences.
  • Complex social and cultural factors influencing risk and resilience are difficult or impossible to capture directly.
  • Data quality and availability are another limitation. Especially in parts of the Global South, vulnerability data may be incomplete or inaccurate, affecting validity.
  • Internal differences within large countries are not reflected, as the index aggregates to national level.

Ultimately, the WorldRiskIndex is a simplified model of reality. It provides orientation and comparability, helping NGOs, governments, and international organizations identify needs and initiate disaster risk reduction measures. However, it does not replace detailed local or sectoral risk assessments. Responsible use requires awareness of these limits.

The WorldRiskIndex systematically addresses missing data and uncertainty to ensure reliable and comparable results:

  • Indicator selection: Preference is given to data that is consistently available and reliable for as many countries as possible, minimizing gaps.
  • Statistical imputation: Missing data is estimated using transparent methods, such as extrapolation from similar countries or regions. These estimates are documented to minimize bias.
  • Consideration of data quality: Indicators with high uncertainty or poor data are given lower weight or excluded if necessary.
  • Regular updates: New or improved data are continuously integrated; outdated or incorrect values are corrected.
  • Transparency: All data sources and methods are openly documented so users can understand how missing or uncertain data was handled.

This ensures that the index remains robust, methodologically sound, and internationally comparable, even where complete datasets are not available.

  • Only internationally recognized, scientifically validated, and regularly updated sources are used (e.g., World Bank, UN agencies, WHO).
  • Each dataset is reviewed for consistency, traceability, and cross-country comparability; unreliable sources are excluded or down-weighted.
  • The index is usually updated annually, incorporating new or improved datasets.
  • All data sources and versions are transparently documented; delays or uncertainties are explained.
  • Ongoing quality assurance and methodological refinement are ensured through dialogue with data providers and experts.

Thus, the WorldRiskIndex remains reliable, up to date, and methodologically transparent.

The WorldRiskIndex incorporates global phenomena like the climate crisis at multiple levels, since they affect both hazard exposure and societal vulnerability:

  • Exposure: Regularly updated data on frequency, intensity, and type of natural hazards are included. Since the climate crisis intensifies storms, droughts, floods, and heatwaves, these are directly reflected in hazard data.
  • Vulnerability: Climate change worsens existing social and infrastructural weaknesses, such as inadequate healthcare systems, resource scarcity, or fragile governance. These are part of the vulnerability dimension.
  • Long-term dynamics: The WRI methodology is designed to reveal structural trends. By continuously updating indicators, climate-related changes can be tracked over time.

Thus, the WRI captures climate change as a central driver of rising disaster risks—through both increased hazard exposure and heightened vulnerability.

Yes. Even countries with high WorldRiskIndex scores can improve their situation in the short term through investments in early warning systems, contingency plans, disaster preparedness, and awareness campaigns. These measures strengthen coping capacities and reduce the impact of extreme events.

However, the index primarily reflects long-term structural risks such as poverty, education, health infrastructure, or governance. These can only be sustainably improved over years. Short-term measures are therefore important but must be embedded in long-term strategies.

The benefit of the index is that regular updates make progress or setbacks visible, helping to prioritize risk reduction measures.

The WorldRiskIndex primarily reflects long-term structural risks, making it largely robust against short-term political or economic fluctuations. It is based on indicators such as social vulnerability, infrastructure, health systems, exposure, and coping capacities—factors that change gradually.

Short-term crises (political unrest, economic downturns) therefore do not immediately affect the index. Prolonged developments—such as chronic instability, deep recessions, or conflicts—can, however, indirectly influence it (e.g., by increasing poverty, reducing disaster preparedness investment, or weakening healthcare). Such effects often appear with delay, as underlying data is collected retrospectively.

Thus, the index does not directly measure political or economic risk but their indirect effects on vulnerability to natural hazards. A full picture requires separate analysis of political and economic risks.