Collage: Naldo Gruden / MediaCompany; Verwendete Bilder: Hand © Irmin Eitel / Brot für die Welt, Zerstörte Fassade © Isabelle Freimann / Diakonie Katastrophenhilfe, Ausgetrocknetes Flussbett © Pexels, Überschwemmtes Dorf: © Pok Rie / Canva, Waldbrand © Axel Bueckert / Vecteezy
+++ Now available: The WorldRiskReport 2024 +++
The WorldRiskReport
Every year millions of people worldwide suffer from disasters in the aftermath of extreme natural events. But whether it be earthquakes, storms or floods, the risk of a natural event turning into a disaster only partly depends on the force of the natural event itself. The framework conditions of a society and the structures in place to respond quickly and to provide assistance in the event of emergency are just as significant. The more fragile the infrastructure network, the greater the extent of extreme poverty and inequality and the worse the access to the public health system, the more susceptible a society is to natural events. Extreme natural events cannot be prevented directly, but countries can reduce disaster risk by fighting poverty and hunger, strengthening education and health, and taking preparedness measures. Those who build earthquake-proof buildings, install and use early warning systems and invest in climate and environmental protection, are better prepared against extreme natural events.
The annual editions focus on a main topic and include the WorldRiskIndex. Since 2018 the report is published in cooperation with the Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) of the Ruhr-University Bochum. The WorldRiskReport should contribute to look at the links between natural events, climate change, development and preparedness at a global level and to draw future-oriented conclusions regarding relief measures, policies and reporting.
Focus: Multiple crises
Crises such as extreme natural events, pandemics, wars, and conflicts are increasingly overlapping and amplifying each other. Global trends like climate change, population growth, and political polarization are exacerbating their effects. Our world is facing ever more complex and interconnected crises, which are driving up poverty and social inequality worldwide. The achievement of goals like those outlined in the Sustainable Development Goals is at serious risk.
The impacts of multiple crises are evident at every level: global, national, regional, and individual. Due to globalization and economic interdependencies, crises that begin in one country or region can quickly spread to other parts of the world. A stark example is the war in Ukraine, which has worsened global food insecurity. Weak governance, chronic conflicts, and recurring extreme weather events are mutually reinforcing, leading to hunger crises as seen in Ethiopia and Somalia. On an individual level, multiple crises are threatening livelihoods and severely impacting mental health.
To effectively and proactively address these diverse impacts, existing tools for analyzing the complex risk profiles of multiple crises need to be enhanced. Current methods often focus on single triggers and struggle with the complexity of interconnected crises. New strategies are needed to translate insights into actionable humanitarian measures. This requires closer collaboration between data scientists and humanitarian practitioners.
Only through innovative and integrated approaches in disaster risk management can we effectively tackle the challenges posed by multiple crises and mitigate their devastating impacts. This calls for enhanced international cooperation, the sharing of knowledge and resources, and the development of flexible and adaptable solutions that encompass both immediate relief efforts and long-term prevention strategies.
A comprehensive understanding of the interactions between different types of crises, their various levels of impact, and manifestations is essential. A holistic approach is required to strengthen the resilience of societies and promote sustainable development.
Flooded village in Southeast Asia © Pok Rie / Canva
WorldRiskIndex
The WorldRiskIndex indicates the disaster risk from extreme natural events and negative climate change impacts for 193 countries in the world. It is calculated per country as the geometric mean of exposure and vulnerability. Exposure represents the extent to which populations are exposed to and burdened by the impacts of earthquakes, tsunamis, coastal and riverine floodings, cyclones, droughts, and sea level rise. Vulnerability maps the societal domain and is composed of three dimensions:
- Susceptibility describes structural characteristics and conditions of a society that increase the overall likelihood that populations will suffer damage from extreme natural events and enter a disaster situation.
- Coping involves various capacities and actions of societies to counter negative impacts of natural hazards and climate change through direct actions and available resources in the form of formal or informal activities, and to minimize damage in the immediate aftermath of an event.
- Adaptation, in contrast to coping capacities, refers to long-term processes and strategies to achieve anticipatory changes in societal structures and systems to counter, mitigate, or purposefully avoid future adverse impacts.
The basic model of the WorldRiskIndex with its modular structure, was developed jointly with the United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS). Since 2018, the Institute for International Law of Peace and Armed Conflict (IFHV) of Ruhr-University Bochum has taken over the calculation and continuously refined the model conceptually and methodologically. In 2022, the WorldRiskIndex is published with a completely revised model that includes 100 indicators from globally available and publicly accessible databases. For the first time, all 193 member states of the United Nations are represented. Among other things, the WorldRiskIndex serves as a guidance for decision makers and identifies fields of action for disaster risk reduction.